US Open odds: Where Draper ranks among final eight at Flushing Meadows

22-year-old Jack Draper is gearing up for his first Grand Slam quarter-final as he prepares to face Alex de Minaur at the US Open.
The current British number one beat Czech Tomas Machac 6-3, 6-1, 6-2 in the round of 16 to book his place in the final eight, and he faces the Australian 10th seed – who beat compatriot Jordan Thompson to get to this stage – on 4 September.
And with Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz exiting the tournament at the third and second rounds respectively, Flushing Meadows could see a new champion in 2024.
But Draper will face fierce competition as he bids to become the first British Grand Slam winner since Andy Murray at Wimbledon in 2016.
World number one Jannik Sinner remains in the bidding, along with 2021 winner Daniil Medvedev and the on-form Alexander Zverev, but the rest of the field is spread between lower seeds, such as Frances Tiafoe and Taylor Fritz.
Draper will feel like he can advance to the later rounds, but just where exactly does he rank among the remaining players?
Tiafoe is seen as the underdog out of the remaining players, with prices varying between 20/1 and 28/1. The American will face ninth seed Grigor Dimitrov in his quarter-final, with the Bulgarian holding a 3-1 winning record agains the 26-year-old.
Nevertheless, Tiafoe has home support behind him, and the relevance of this can never be overlooked, with that same support having helped him to the semi-finals in 2022 before he lost in five sets to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz. Tiafoe would face either Fritz or Zverev if he made the semi-finals, so he could be quietly confident if he managed to make it past Dimitrov.
Dimitrov will be Tiafoe’s opponent in the last eight, and though he will have to put up with a home crowd and a confident Tiafoe, the Bulgarian will be confident in his ability to book a semi-final place in New York.
His winning record against the American includes wins at Wimbledon in 2023 and the Australian Open in 2019, and he is enjoying some of the most consistent form of his entire career in 2024, but with Tiafoe already having beaten both Alexei Popyrin and Ben Shelton, could we be in for another upset at the Arthur Ashe?
The Australian may be priced level with Jack Draper coming into their match, but the form sheet shows that he has all the tools to beat the young Briton when they meet, as proven by his superior record – three wins to Draper’s zero.
His best finish in any major tournament is this stage, so he will be desperate to advance to his first Grand Slam semi-final, and he has recovered well from an injury at Wimbledon.
Though Draper has yet to drop a set at Flushing meadows this year, he hasn’t faced a test as tough as de Minaur, and a reminder of the Australian’s ability may come as a shock to him come match day.
In reality, Draper is the lowest-ranked player still remaining in the tournament, though the bookies are offering odds as low as 14/1 for the Briton to win the competition, so he is far from the highest odds.
As mentioned above, this is the 22-year-old’s first Grand Slam quarter-final, and he has three previous losses against his opponent, Alex de Minaur. In addition, if he does progress against the Australian, he would face the winner of the match between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev – probably the two toughest semi-final opponents you could ask for here.
Nevertheless, the Briton has one win over Sinner and one loss against Medvedev in their respective previous meetings, and with 2024 being his first injury-free year on the ATP Tour, you never know what the youngster is capable of serving up at Flushing Meadows.
Fritz has enjoyed a relatively successful 2024, reaching three Grand Slam quarter-finals as well as the semi-finals of the doubles at Paris 2024. He’ll face world number four Alexander Zverev, who he has a 3-2 record against on hard courts, and who he beat 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(3), 6-3 at Wimbledon earlier this year.
Previous meetings between the two have been fairly evenly matched, with Zverev holding the winning record with five wins to Fritz’s four – could home advantage, or the hard courts, be the key come quarter-final day?
Medvedev has already won the US Open once in his career, beating Novak Djokovic in the 2021 final, so he has the experience at Flushing Meadows that the others maybe lack. In addition, he has had perhaps the easiest run to this stage, so fresh legs may play a part against Sinner.
The Russian has a winning record of 7-5 against the Italian, with their last meeting ending with a Medvedev win at the quarter-final stage at Wimbledon. However, Sinner dominated in their last hard-court match.
Medvedev has been here before and against even better opposition, so perhaps his previous experience will be key.
Zverev has struggled against Fritz in the past, and in recent months has lost to supposedly inferior players in the final of the Hamburg Open and the Canadian Open (as well as that loss to Fritz at Wimbledon). The German has also been dealing with a knee issue at various points, although this didn’t stop him reaching the final of the French Open in June.
The German will be fully aware that he is the ‘better’ player in his tie, though he must not let the crowd get to him if he wants to book a place in another Grand Slam semi-final.
The winner of Zverev’s tie against Fritz will have what most would call the ‘kinder’ draw against Dimitrov or Tiafoe, so whoever it is would be confident that they can take advantage of that and book a place in the final.
Sinner enters the US Open in good form, having won the Cincinnati Open, though the doping allegations that have surrounded him since that tournament have clearly affected him.
The Italian is the overwhelming favourite with the bookies, perhaps courtesy of his recent record against Medvedev as well as his potential semi-final match-up against either de Minaur or Draper. He has won his last nine matches, including in the round of 16 against Tommy Paul, and is the ‘form player’ at the tournament.
In Daniil Medvedev he faces the only player left in the tournament to have previously won it, but as the rankings show, Sinner is in better form as he continues to grow as a player, and will hope to put the Wimbledon defeat behind him as he looks to add to this year’s Australian Open title.